"Fate laughs at probabilities." - (Lytton Bulwer)

Math History Tidbit:


Abacus: Dating back perhaps 5,000 years, this device involving rods and beads was used by the Chinese, Greeks, and Romans. It is still used in some parts of the world today.

Napier's bones: Invented by John Napier (Scotland, 1550-1617), this simple device consisted of a series of rods containing the digits 1 to 9. Rotating the rods facilitated multiplication.

Slide rule: Napier's discovery of logarithms led to the invention of this device by William Oughtred (1574-1660). It is really just a compact set of logarithm tables, and it was widely used well into the twentieth century.

Herkimer's Corner

Where did Herkimer leave his pet pigs while he took a stroll in a big city?

Answer: In a porking lot.

Herky wants to know:

Why should there be chicken in chicken soup when there is no horse in horseradish?

If you believe in the motto "the customer is always right," what do you do when a customer insists he was wrong?


Reading: Section 10.4, pages 567-572, 574-577, including SUMMARY on page 577.

Also: Read the handout Errors (Type I and Type II) and the concept of Power.

Exercises: None, except work through the computations that are described in the handout.

Items for reflection:

You are working in Section 10.4.

Type I Error: This can only occur when null hypothesis,H0, istrue.

Type II Error: Thiscan only occur when null hypothesis, H0, is false.

Power of a Test: 1 -probability (Type II Error). This is the probability thatH0 will becorrectly rejected for a particular alternative value of a populationparameter.





The Practice of Statistics, by Yates, Moore, McCabe. New York,W.H. Freeman and Company, 1999. (ISBN 0-7167-3370-6)

Supplemental books:
The Cartoon Guide to Statistics, by Gonick and Smith. NewYork, HarperCollins Publishers, 1993. (ISBN 0-06-273102-5)
How to Lie with Statistics, by Darrell Huff. New York, W.W.Norton & Company, 1982 (ISBN 0-393-09426-X)

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